THE TREND TO BIGGER ARMS BUDGETS

...First, the question of significant reductions in Pentagon spending, so endlessly discussed in the 1976 campaign, has simply vanished from consideration...

...combat capabilities in order to ensure that the Vietnam withdrawal would not be interpreted as implying a lack of "will" to defend more fundamental interests...

...Out of such thinking came the calculation that the Angolan conflict did not merit direct U.S...

...But Carter entered the White House with a clear, if somewhat contradictory, mandate to "heal the wounds of war" and to reassert America's "greatness" in the world arena...

...Although the administration's budget submission contains mostly data on the nature and quantity of weapons sought for America's armed forces, it tells us a lot about the type of forces Washington seeks to deploy, and the contingencies for which they are being Michael T. klare is Director of the Militarism and Disarmament Project of the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C., and the author of War Without End: American Planning for the Next Vietnam...

...Both the F-16 and the A-10 are being described as NATO-oriented weapons: the F-16 is actually being "co-produced" by a consortium of U.S...

...Strategic forces: These are nuclear weapons and their delivery systems intended for use in an all-out war with the Soviet Union...

...Out of this debate, several major themes have emerged: 1. The United States must not squander scarce political and economic resources in prolonged "police" operations on the fringes of the imperium, but must conserve its resources for defense of the critical "heartland"— Europe, the Middle East, the Pacific, and the Western Hemisphere...

...Although Carter originally stated in his campaign speeches that a limited nuclear war was an "impossibility" since even a minor nuclear exchange would probably ignite an all-out war, Brown's decision to proceed with the MX and other "hard-target killers" implies a turnaround to the Schlesinger position...

...Most of this increase, Carter announced, will be used to upgrade U.S...

...troops from Indochina, many top policymakers were fearful that domestic opposition to interventionism would diminish the credibility of future U.S...

...to repel any attack launched against NATO nations...

...Nixon spent most of his first term trying to postpone the inevitable in Indochina, and Ford had to deal with the immediate consequences of the U.S...

...Although most Americans probably welcomed the decision to withdraw U.S...

...Secretary Brown lias revived the ominous warnings about protecting oil supplies, and an actual intervention there or in the Persian Gulf is conceivable...

...military resources will be commensurate with the perceived value of the interests in question...

...In response to questions about the apparent discrepancy between these figures and Carter's campaign pledge to "reduce present defense expenditures by about $5 to $7 billion *The figures cited represent the amounts Congress will be asked to appropriate for FY 1979, and are known as the "Total Obligational Authority" (TOA...

...The budget submission does not really answer these questions, and we are faced with the more subjective task of reconstructing the administration's strategic outlook on the basis of newspaper leaks, general policy statements and inference from budgetary allocations...

...Other budget categories will either remain at the same level (after allowing for inflation), or, in some cases, will be cut back marginally in order to ensure that sufficient funds will be available to "strengthen our ability...

...On the contrary, the Pentagon is gearing up a campaign, announced by Secretary Brown on February 2, to raise the defense budget by another $56 billion over the next five years...

...Whereas during the Ford administration the bulk of such funds went to the B-l bomber and the F-15 Eagle swing-wing fighter, Carter is placing greater emphasis on less sophisticated but more economical systems such as the F-16 Air Combat Fighter, the A-10 close-support aircraft and the ubiquitous cruise missile...

...The politics of NATO may provide a kind of leverage that the dollar can no longer guarantee...

...air and ground forces committed to NATO...

...The administration also proposes a modest increase in nuclear weapons spending, to counter the purported expansion of Russia's nuclear arsenal, and even includes a $73 million appropriation for research and development (R&D) on anti-satellite weapons...

...intervention in Vietnam might be hesitant to question...

...The Air Force: Although the Air Force will receive approximately the same amount next year as in FY 1978 for aircraft procurement—$6.9 billion in FY 1979 as compared to $6.3 billion this year—there are significant shifts in the breakdown of such spending...

...control of key interests abroad without provoking widespread public opposition...

...In line with these realities, Secretary Brown on Jan...

...Actual outlays in FY 1979 will actually be slightly less, since the TOA figures include funding for projects which may take several years to complete...

...The administration is also requesting $158 million (up from $134 million in 1978) for advanced development of the MX intercontinental ballistic missile (1OBM), which is slated to have greater accuracy and yield than existing U.S...

...For those Americans who can recall the Berlin Blockade and the subsequent Cold War confrontations, Carter's budget rationale will seem oddly familiar...

...In the present international environment," Carter indicated on Jan...

...Army: As suggested earlier, the Army is the Big Winner in FY 1979...

...Before proceeding to an analysis of Carter's strategic outlook, therefore, it is worth breaking the budget into its principal components and describing the major items being sought in FY 1979...

...After NATO, the administration seeks the biggest increase for "rapid-reaction" forces geared to intervention in the oil-rich Persian Gulf area...

...To complement the contrived "bomber gap" and "missile gap" of bygone days, there is what promises to be an equally fleeting danger: the killersatellite gap...

...This breakdown of proposed Pentagon spending provides us with some important insights into the administration's strategic thinking...

...dependence on imported raw materials—particularly energy sources—and is consistent with the Carter administration's emphasis on support of NATO, since control of the Atlantic sea lanes would obviously be critical in any prolonged war in Europe...

...The emphasis on NATO is most evident in the breakdown of military spending by services...

...Given the American lead in such critical areas as missile accuracy, reliability, and multiple-warhead (MIRV) technology, this shift is sure to be interpreted by Moscow as indicative of American intentions to acquire an aggressive first-strike nuclear capability—thus complicating the task of concluding a new strategic arms limitation agreement (SALT-II) while laying the groundwork for a new spiral in the thermonuclear arms race...

...But the least of these factors is the danger of a Soviet invasion, which knowledgeable analysts agree is less than negligible...

...Hence the emphasis on new Counterforce weapons which appear to threaten the survivability of Russia's second-strike retaliatory capability, and the preference for usable military power in the NATO theater...

...merchant vessels and supply ships against naval attack on the high seas...

...The fact that Europe is not only an economic partner but, more and more, an economic rival is another...

...These priorities are manifest in the FY 1979 naval shipbuilding budget, which provides no funds for aircraft carriers but which includes $1.5 billion for procurement of eight FFG-class escort vessels...

...In naval terms, this translates as reduced spending on aircraft carriers and accelerated production ot smaller, cheaper escort vessels...

...pullout...

...Nonetheless, the administration is beginning to rekindle fears of a Soviet assault on Western Europe, a specter that even the most ardent opponents of U.S...

...This outlook also assumes that any future commitments of U.S...

...These moves, together with the administration's emphasis on space warfare, suggest a preference for improved war-fighting capabilities rather than for largely symbolic instruments of power such as that represented by the B-l bomber...

...A major beneficiary of this buildup is the Chrysler Corporation, which will receive $411 million for procurement of 508 M-60 heavy tanks and another $497 million to begin production of the new XM-1 Main Battle Tank, the Army's super-weapon of the 1980's and 1990's...

...Knopf...

...The Navy: As in the case of strategic weapons, the administration's naval budget exhibits a marked preference for war-fighting capabilities over largely symbolic programs...

...Second, NATO is to be resuscitated and conventional weapons emphasized...

...These leaders viewed the Vietnam debacle as the consequence of miscalculation—as an error of means, but not of ends—and therefore sought new, more "cost-effective" strategies that would assure continued U.S...

...It is this principle that almost inevitably transforms Carter's talk of a ceiling on arms sales into a series of 17 March 1978: 176 accounting gimmicks that would make New York politicians blush...

...Commonweal: 173 annually," Brown noted that the administration request was $5.3 billion lower than President Ford's proposed FY 1979 budget, so that Carter's figures are actually "in accordance with his statements of 1976...

...carriers in future conflicts involving front-line Soviet forces...

...The fear of Eurocommunism is certainly one...

...THE TREND TO BIGGER ARMS BUDGETS MICHAEL T. KLARE Remembrance of things past: Carter's 'NATO Budget' Reading through the Pentagon's Fiscal 1979 budget request—the first prepared under President Carter's tutelage—is apt to stir up more than a faint twinge of nostalgia...

...Under the Carter budget, spending on these forces will be increased by about five percent, from $9.3 billion in FY 1978 to $9.8 billion in 1979...

...While the Navy and Air Force will receive only modest gains, about $1.2 billion (3.1 percent) in the case of the former and $1.7 billion (5 percent) in the case of the latter, the Army budget will grow by $2.5 billion (8.6 percent) to $31.3 billion...

...Conventional forces in Europe would, of course, be used in the Middle East...

...The Air Force will also receive $198 million for the EF-111A electronic-warfare aircraft (for jamming enemy radars) and $416 million for procurement of the air-launched cruise missile (another $238 million is programmed for ALOM research and development...

...Thus Iran has become a sort of "mini-superpower" in the Persian Gulf area thanks to deliveries of America's most advanced arms, and Indonesia has used its American-supplied weapons to overcome the independence movement in East Timor...

...Although all previous administrations had made similar commitments to NATO, Nixon and Ford gave preferential treatment to the Navy and Air Force at budget time, while the Army—which would have to do most of the real fighting in any future European war—was given a smaller share of the pie...

...efforts to protect its key interests overseas...

...It may not be as glamorous as an MX or as a nuclear carrier, but it's very important to our combat capability...

...The Army will also spend $307 million on the Raytheon Patriot surfaceto-air missile, $225 million on the European-designed Roland air-defense missile system, and $150 million for the General Dynamics Stinger shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile...

...Instead of the preoccupation with Third World radicalism that permeated more recent budget submissions, there are repeated warnings about Soviet missile capabilities and the Russian troop build-up in Eastern Europe...

...And, to improve its mobility in "brushfire" wars or other police operations, the Army will acquire 78 Bell AH-1S Cobra attack helicopters and 129 Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk troop-carrying helicopters for a combined cost of $530 million...

...The NATO revival, with its evocations of the original Truman Doctrine, does not signal any break with Cold War globalism nor promise any relief from our everconsuming military establishment...

...And, in presenting the budget to Congress, Defense Secretary Harold Brown argued that "the continued build-up of Warsaw Pact forces . . . not only warrants but requires" a corresponding build-up of U.S...

...Most of this increase will be used to improve Army capabilities in a "high-threat" environment—i.e., Europe or the Middle East, where potential adversaries are likely to be armed with the latest Soviet weapons...

...policymakers upon the collapse of the American intervention in Vietnam...

...23, "the most important measure of relative military strength is the balance that exists between the United States and its NATO allies, on the one hand, and the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact allies on the other...

...and European firms, and is intended to replace the aging F-104 fighters in existing NATO inventories...

...The increase for NATO-committed units is even more dramatic: 18 percent in real terms according to the President...

...First, it is apparent that Harold Brown is fully committed to former Defense Secretary (now Energy Secretary) James R. Schlesinger's "Counterforce Doctrine," which holds that the United States must be capable of destroying hardened Soviet missile sites in the event of a "limited nuclear war" with the USSR...

...The military budget illustrates how he has chosen to do this...

...The A-10 attack plane is not nearly as glamorous as the super-sophisticated Eagle, for instance, but at $5.5 million each it would probably provide a lot more "use value" in any prolonged conventional war than the $16.7 million F-15...

...ICBM's and thus is thought to be more effective in destroying "hardened" Soviet missile sites...

...These funds will be used to acquire additional tanks, troop-carrying helicopters, ground-support aircraft, and other hardware needed for a conventional (i.e., non-nuclear) war in Europe...

...26 ordered the Navy to develop new war plans envisioning a reduced role for U.S...

...Finally, for those who saw in the Carter rhetoric of a "new world order" a de-emphasis on aging alliances—but didn't read the fine print or note Zbigniew Brzezinski's longstanding focus on European affairs— there is the surprise of the administration's increased engagement in the original postwar alliance, NATO...

...We must, Carter explained, "increase the firepower and mobility of the Army and Marine infantry divisions to provide greater flexibility to respond to threats outside the NATO area...

...Despite such legerdemain, the new Pentagon budget is a whopping $9.2 billion bigger than last year's...

...Whereas the Ford administration had anticipated expenditures of several billions of dollars to begin production of the B-l bomber, the Carter administration seeks no funds for B-l production (some $100 million is programmed for R&D) but proposes a significant speedup in the production of air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs), which are thought to have a better chance of penetrating Soviet air defenses and striking targets deep within the Russian heartland...

...Although these figures suggest little change in the rate of nuclear spending, the new budget actually incorporates some significant shifts in strategic planning...

...Next, we see a consistent preference for conventional forces which have a potential military use in future conflicts, rather than for forces whose major purpose is to justify the procurement of costly weapons systems...

...3. In those "core areas" where America's most valuable overseas assets are concentrated, we would strengthen U.S...

...To ensure that Western Europe will not be overrun •by the Red Army, Carter proposes an eight percent increase in military spending, from $116.8 billion in Fiscal Year 1978 to a record $126 billion in FY 1979 (which begins on Oct...

...Carter, on the other hand, has vetoed the B-l bomber and a new aircraft carrier while providing extra funds for frontline Army units...

...At the same time, Brown has placed renewed emphasis on the Navy's "sea control" mission—i.e., its ability to protect U.S...

...This principle, known formally as the "Nixon Doctrine," assumes that the United States will provide these regimes with sufficient arms, training and financial support to ensure the success of such missions...

...To begin this process, it is necessary to return briefly to the world inherited by U.S...

...And while there has been much debate in elite circles over the optimum configuration of such strategies, there has been very little dispute over the need for them...

...When asked to comment on the relative absence of any "new initiatives" in weapons procurement comparable to the B-l bomber or MX missile, Secretary Brown responded that "a billion dollar increase in Army procurement over the previous year is a real initiative...

...Although the carrier has long served as America's principal "forwarddeployed" symbol of military power, it has in recent years become increasingly vulnerable to Soviet antiship missiles while its price tag ($1 billion, for starters) has risen astronomically...

...gun which is designed to cripple Soviet tanks and armored vehicles...

...Why this sudden preoccupation with NATO...

...And since America's capacity to defend these interests rests, ultimately, on our ability to "stare down" the Soviets in a crisis, there is a shared feeling that we must come out stronger in those measurements of military power—the strategic arms balance and the NATOWarsaw Pact balance—which would be controlling in any superpower conflict...

...1, 1978).* Even when these figures are adjusted for inflation, the Carter budget represents a "real" increase of three percent...

...NATO Emphases We can also see that the President's verbal commitments to NATO are being backed up by a real shift in budgetary priorities...

...The factors involved in this concentration on NATO are many...

...the A-10, a relatively unsophisticated plane by Air Force standards, is armed with the General Electric GAU-8/A 30-mm...

...forces in Europe...

...The emphasis on such "core areas" as Europe and the Middle East also accounts for the apparently backward-looking nature of the Carter budget, since America's postwar thrust towards global supremacy began with the Truman Doctrine and the commitment to NATO...

...intervention, but that any uprising in the oil-rich Persian Gulf would...

...And why prepare for intervention in the Middle East when we are supposedly working so hard to find a peaceful solution to the area's most critical problems...

...2. In areas where the United States is not prepared, for whatever reason, to act as the immediate police power, we would convert selected local powers into regional gendarmes that could serve as our surrogate in any needed counterinsurgency exercises...

...Although these three principles have been followed by all three post-Vietnam administrations, Carter's is the first to be in a position to implement them fully...

...Army spending on new weapons will jump by a whopping 25 percent—from $5.3 billion in FY 1978 to $6.6 billion next year...

...Much the same could be said for the FFG escort vessel when compared to the $1 billion-plus carrier, and other weapons sought by the Carter Administration...

...Such a policy obviously reflects the growing U.S...