Correspondence
"Correspondence" THOSE LINES in front of the White House these days aren't made up of tourists, but of former Republican Congressmen looking to their old buddy from Grand Rapids for work. Most of them consider...
...Numerically the conservatives already own the GOP but they don't control it...
...House Republican Leader John Rhodes, for example, found himself in real trouble, but like many of his Senate counterparts, he managed to hang on by the slimmest of margins...
...During the next few months, conservatives will be meeting secretly and publicly to discuss their future activities...
...They look to their President for leadership and they are willing to follow almost anything without complaint...
...They were men who had been around for a long time...
...Most winning Republicans didn't know they had survived until late...
...Most of them consider themselves innocent victims of Watergate and inflation...
...Moreover, they are able to contend for the first time that the label Republican is itself a real handicap...
...Those conservatives with a stake in the Party sympathize with the frustrations of those talking about a third party, but they disagree...
...But the acquiescence in President Ford's decision to elevate Mrs...
...It is their conviction that the Republican Party is bankrupt intellectually and morally, that it can never serve as a vehicle for conservative influence because it must continue to be dominated by pragmatists and people more interested in winning office than solving problems...
...Next year will be different, they tell us, and in 1976 we can expect a GOP comeback...
...And, it's almost certain that Jerry does understand...
...I haven't considered the impact of California Governor Ronald Reagan's apparent desire to run in 1976, either as a Republican or as a leader of a new party, because I suspect the impetus for a new party is being generated by events rather than a desire to find a vehicle for his candidacy...
...They seem reluctant to give up a major party over which they might exercise control...
...Still, many observers are of the opinion that the 1974 elections were merely typical of off-year elections and especially of those six years into an administration...
...Indeed, unless this fact is appreciated, it is difficult even to comprehend the magnitude of the disaster that struck the GOP on November 5. Consider the Senate races...
...This time they met what must be described as an unmitigated disaster...
...In the first place it was far worse at the gubernatorial and state legislative levels than previous disasters, and secondly, it was so bad that those Republicans who hung on didn't exactly win overwhelmingly...
...But they voted for her anyway...
...That is how close to real disaster the GOP came this year...
...Smith to the chairmanship must be seen as supporting the worst fears of those who now tell us the Republican Party must be replaced...
...The situation was the same in the House...
...however, their ultimate decision may depend as much on what President Ford and the leaders of the Republican Party do as on their own desires...
...many of them could remember 1964 when there was no White House to turn to and even 1958 when their ranks were decimated by an angry electorate...
...How, they ask, can anyone take a party seriously headed by someone like Mary Louise Smith who, in their opinion, was out of her depth back in Iowa...
...Many of the men who went down in flames on November 5 were close friends whom he had tried desperately and unsuccessfully to save...
...The numbers are interesting and important, of course, but a look at the returns tells us something even more important...
...This might have been excusable in the early years of the Nixon Administration, but became totally inexcusable as it became increasingly clear that a major party cannot afford to be lead around by the nose...
...At this point it is unclear whether they will decide to stick with the GOP or go the third-party route...
...The party of big business is now also the party of corruption and inflation...
...And, therefore, they think they deserve to be taken care of by a President who understands...
...In 1964 Republicans lost heavily in the North, but were actually picking up House seats in the South...
...They do control the Republican National Committee as well, but they have let successive Republican Presidents name their chairmen for them...
...This may not happen, but it can at least be seen that more serious Republican and conservative politicians are talking about forming a third party than ever before...
...But it is at least possible that we are at a crossroad and that the Republican Party, like the Whigs of the last century, will wither and disappear to be replaced by a new major party, capable of harnessing the potential of the conservative majority thatso many analysts tell us is out there somewhere...
...A conservative majority within the party is of little value if it doesn't act as such...
...Fewer people are willing to identify themselves as Republicans than ever before, and state Party organizations around the country are dead or dying...
...The weakness of this position, of course, is that while all of these things are true they don't mean much...
...It must be noticed, however, that if a serious third party comes into being its viability might depend on Reagan's willingness to lead it...
...After all, they say, conservatives control the Republican Party...
...Thus, though it would seem that logic favors the position that the GOP is worth saving, few may be willing to do so if theirleaders aren't willing to save themselves...
...Indeed, some may be going beyond the talking stage to put real plans together...
...Thus, it is clear that if Democrats across the board had mustered one extra percentage point they would have wiped out the Republican Party in many areas of the country...
...They lost everywhere and therefore managed to lose many of the regional gains so important to a party realignment...
...They won in Miami in 1972, they hold a numerical advantage on the Republican National Committee, and they control the crucially important auxiliary groups...
...But this is 1974 and Republicans are beginning to concede that the debacle this year was different in significant, and perhaps qualitative, ways from those that preceded it...
...They did win in Miami, defeating the liberals in a crucial rules battle, but came home to discover that their victory would have to be won all over again because their chairman had appointed the leader of the forces they whipped so decisively to head a reform commission...
...As I write this it appears that the GOP won five races—in Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma—by margins of less than 1 percent...
...The new chairman had no constituency and most of those who saluted and voted for her some months ago believe her unsuited for the job...
Vol. 8 • January 1975 • No. 4
