Ford and the GOP Prospect
Keene, David
"Ford and the GOP Prospect" FR. NIXON'S DECISION to resign the Presiancy rather than face almost certain re-oval after impeachment by the House of apresentatives and what would have to aye been a long and bitter trial in...
...It is difficult so soon after Mr...
...Nixon bailed these men out by resigning, and the Republican Party may now be able to cut its losses this fall...
...In stead, they may emerge as a powerfu voice within a party no longer willing t( sit idly by while its President calls al the shots...
...Journalists and others always pictured Richard Nixon as a product of the conservative wing of the GOP, but conservatives never shared this perception...
...Party leaders must today be hoping that his final defeat will be just as personal...
...But it does not necessarily follow tha conservatives will lose power withir their own party at a time when the country is moving in their direction...
...Future projections barring the totally nexpected are almost as difficult since Ir...
...These men realized that the Watergate atmosphere had destroyed Republicanmorale and made it impossible for GOP candidates to get off the defensive...
...Those changes—charted by analyst Kevin Phillips in his Emerging Republican Majority some years ago—are continuing, but their electoral impact has been blunted by Watergate...
...They anted it to go away and in the end they ere blaming Mr...
...by seeking the office in his own right...
...It is too soon to say whether Ford wil run for a full term in 1976, but as I hav( already indicated, he will be guarantee( his party's nomination if he does...
...Indeed,more than one movement conservativE leader opposed resignation because of fear that as President, Ford would con tinue most of Mr...
...Although many analysts describe Mr...
...In addition to the short-term benefits, it would appear that Mr...
...Nixon's programs anc block whatever chance their hero, Gover nor Reagan of California, might have it 1976...
...They saw him from the beginning as a manipulator rather than a man of ideas, as one who might do anything to get elected or to carve out a place for himself in the history books...
...They were right, but they did not realize how little he cared for his own party...
...They never viewed him as one of their own, though many of them supportedhim in both 1968 and 1972 against more conservative candidates who they felt could'not win...
...Another Nixon...
...Still, though it may only be guessing, I suspect there are some general projections that can be made at this time...
...Indeed, it might be ifest to predict that most predictions will wrong...
...During the Nixon Presidency, the Republican Party organization was weakened and ignored...
...Even his friends were deserting im and it was clear by Tuesday of the eek of his resignation that he could not irvive, that the game was up...
...Nixon himself, anted to "put Watergate behind us," but / July of this year they were beginning accept the thesis that this could be :complished only be removing the Presimt...
...The events of the past few /ars have astounded most of us...
...Nixon and therefore of Watergate, the resignation will allow the long-term demographic and attitudinal changes that favor the Republican Party in general and conservatives in particular to work their effect on the electorate...
...Most conservatives who knew Nixon sensed in him a man more interested in winning the Presidency than in doing anything with it...
...Ford as a member of the right wing of his party, most conservative leaders consider him a centrist like Nixon...
...And it is at least likely that he wil decide to test his popularity in two year...
...Ford's rise to the Presidency will allow the GOP to run with an incumbent President in 1976...
...This brings us to the impact of the Nixon resignation on the Republican Party itself...
...Some Modest Predictions First, it can be fairly assumed that Mr...
...Those letters hurt, and most Republicans running this year therefore concluded that they could not afford to desert the President...
...If Ford runs, the Party will also have a man who is generally seen as "clean" running at a time when the public is sick of scandal and questionable ethics...
...Politically, this will help the Republican Party, whose leaders had to be among the most grateful for Mr...
...This will be especially true if President Ford is granted the "honeymoon" period that many are predicting...
...Nixon, his Congressioncritics, and the press for keeping it ive...
...Nixon's victories were personal victories and he wanted them that way...
...There will be continuing trials, of course, but the new administration will take over the front pages...
...Poll after poll has shown this trend in recent years, and with Watergate out of the picture this has to work to the benefit of the Republican Party...
...Senator Jim Buckley of New York found this out in March when he publicly urged resignation...
...The ennedy assassination, President Johnmn's capitulation, Vice President Agnew's rced resignation, and now the fall of a resident who swept forty-nine of the fifty ates less than two years ago, could not we been predicted in advance...
...This was true because though Mr...
...Nixon's mouncement, to predict the consciences of his action on the country or on ie Republican Party...
...The liberal firebrands in Congress and the media may continue to call for Nixon's blood, but I doubt very much if they will get it...
...The American people want to go on and are not likely to demand retribution from a man who has suffered enough and whom most will simply want to forget...
...They knew that if the President did not "disappear" the Party would be in real trouble this fall...
...Ford has yet to really begin remakingthe national government in his own image...
...It was no secret in recent months that most Party leaders and GOP officeholders were quietly hoping for resignation...
...Nixon has succeeded in "putting Watergate behind us...
...They also realized that any position they might take would hurt them back home...
...NIXON'S DECISION to resign the Presiancy rather than face almost certain re-oval after impeachment by the House of apresentatives and what would have to aye been a long and bitter trial in the a nate was greeted with relief in most Darters...
...I he does so, he will bar the Presidency fo all time to rivals like Reagan and Vice President-designate Nelson Rockefeller both of whom will be far too old to tr again in 1980...
...The fear now is that in terms of ideology and direction, Gerald Ford might prove to be just another Nixon...
...The fact is that the American people are becoming more conservative...
...Furthermore, by allowing the Republican Party to go into 1976 free of Mr...
...Most of them were from Nixon people who had backed Buckley's candidacy in 1970 and were now pledging to work for his opponent when Buckley comes up for re-election in two years...
...They, like Mr...
...Most Americans were sick of Watergate...
...Senator Goldwater was predicting that Watergate would cost GOP Congressional candidates ten percentage points in the elections, and House minority leader John Rhodes reportedly had survey data indicating that his party could expect to lose eighty House seats in November—his own among them...
...Nixon was rapidly losing the support of independents and marginal Republicans, he still had a hard core of supporters who would turn on anyone who deserted him...
...Nixon's decision to step down...
...Within two days he received nearly eighteen thousand letters, telegrams, and telephone calls...
...hey were tired of reading about it and isgusted by the whole affair...
Vol. 8 • November 1974 • No. 2
