Jr. on Military Trends: Implications for U S. Security and Soviet Military Power
Schneider, William
20 The A l t e r n a t i v e November, 1971 JACKSON (continued from page 18) as they did not add to their offensive potential. (4) Neither side would deploy a population defending ABM. Such a...
...We cannot allow a similar process to decide our attitudes on Soviet arms control...
...The Archimedian point, in turn, a realm of phantasmal perfection, appears as paradise ~vhen viewed from the point of view nf ~ctua] nothingness...
...The total critique of society is in turn used as a call for total, or permanent, revolution...
...Marx combined the advantages of both in an attempt to eliminate their deficiencies...
...The work of Erickson and KintnerPfaltzgraff significantly improve ore" understanding of the importance of "And reported in such works as A. Chayes and J. Weisner, ABM: An Evalue.t~n el the Der to Deploy an Anti Ballistic Missle System, (New York, Harper and Row, 1969...
...The United States is then seen to be the cause of the Cold War since we supposedly overreacted to a system which wns not actually our enemy...
...A polarity between nothingness and paradise is charac~ristic of every ideological total critique of society, which always extends to a critique of all experienced reality...
...Filliam Schneider, Jr...
...Although the strategy of caution is currently being employed in Europe, the Far East, and Latin America, we can anticipate trends toward opportunity in these regions also...
...East European Landscape...
...Two recent studies - - without question, among the best yet available - - specify the trends in Soviet military power, and assess its implications...
...disadvantage-strategic nuclear forces and naval forces...
...This critique can only accidentally provide a picture of the inevitable Goal...
...For a decade or so we were illinformed by various officials in the national security apparatus who allowed their-beliefs to refract their judgments about Soviet strategic force deployments...
...That one percent is an essential investment...
...The second total critique of society (teleological) that found its way into Marx's thought sees history as a concatonation of stages toward an ultimate end...
...Gerhart Niemeyer, Professor of government at Notre Dame has provided a needed analysis of these questions in his two latest books...
...The strategic budget is a small fraction of the defense budget and an even smaller fraction of our gross national product...
...The author's assessment of Soviet capabilities and behavior lead them to the grim conclusion that: "The Soviet Union has begun to follow the strategy of opportunity increasingly, particularly in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean areas...
...Kitner and Pfaltzgraff, both of the Foreign Policy Research Institute of the University of Pennsylvania have set forth in compact fashion, the dimensions of Soviet military growth...
...To fail in the job of strategic defense is to fail in all our aspirations for better housing, health, welfare, education and the environment...
...The Communists' ideology is supposed to be a mere cover for power --and that's the'way we are too, right...
...The last chapter of the Cold War is supposed to have been written because communism has been perceived to have lost its militant urge to conquer the world...
...There is a gnostic aspect of this critique - - a secret knowledge is said to be available to the thinker-as-messenger...
...When one attempts to make some sort of aggregated calculation however, as to how the United States might fare in a military confrontation in an area of mutual vital interest, it is an extremely difficult task to formulate a theory of how the United States can support its foreign policy objectives by military force in such-a crisis...
...If the Soviets were to employ this strategy, they would seek local rather than global objectives, and would prefer a partner relationship with the United States rather than an adversary relationship...
...In Between Nothingness and Parad/se Niemeyer finds that Marx welded two previously developed total critiques of society...
...By making known his secret knowledge, the thinker will cause the present unreality to collapse, releasing the redemption available only through participating in the true reality...
...Only the "strategy of condominium" would be likely to lead to reduced tensions and a lower probability of political or military confrontation...
...Contrary to the yearly reiterated theory that Secretary McNamara advanced in his annual defense Posture Statement':' to the effect that every U.S...
...Sometimes this latter line of reasoning is applied retroactively to support the conclusion that if the United States had not built up so many alliances all over the world, Stalin's suspicions would never have been aroused...
...We do not have the time...
...The ideologist of h second reality (the true one as opposed to the unreal) has committed himself by definition to a destruction of the present reality...
...influence short of" means likely to lead to confrontation...
...Their best effort in 1950 consisted of a massive conventional force to threaten Europe, while relying on political warfare to attenuate any political advantages which the U.S...
...Human experience, both past and present, is seen as unreal...
...attempt to capture the strategic advantage would only be matched by a Soviet build-up to achieve "parity," Soviet military thinking follows a much different line of reasoning...
...Although there is no logical reason for doing so, this critique posits the final "goal" stage as the only time when man will live in a true reality...
...At the same time we could continue to deploy the very much mvialler warheads of the MIRVed Poseidon missile on our Polaris submarines so as to increase the effectiveness of our sea-based deterrent...
...Although we have posited condominium as a logical alternative to Soviet expansionism, it is unlikely that the Soviets are committed to this choice other than as a transitory tactic...
...My own view is that we will not emerge from the SALT talks with a very comprehensive agreement unless we and the Soviets succeed in arriving at some common understanding as to the nature and objectives of slrategic nuclear forces...
...The axiological critique tends to overlook any consideration of the historical and to see man only in terms of a "true" nature, of sheer desirability in a "possible reality...
...Enough said...
...is on the staff of the Hudson Institute and an advisor to Senator James Buckley, the pride of Old New York...
...Professor John Erickson has produced a scholarly work of the first rank that proves to be a useful complement to the Kintner-Pfaltzgraff study...
...Sometimes it is admitted that communism is not as peaceloving as we would like, but that being patient and willing to prove our good intentions, the suspicious masters in the Kremlin, Peiping, and elsewhere will see that they too can afford to relax tensions and reduce their arms budgets...
...Other than a sort of magical leap in being to the true order, this critique is otherwise short on prescriptions for action...
...Niemeyer places Marx in the camp of those who, because they are motivated by a profound aliermtion from the world, fashion a total critique of society...
...Morevoer, the discussion surrounding this proposal may help to illuminate the nature of Soviet strategic objectives...
...Whether ~,be argued that communisl has changed, or that the United States is finally taking the appropriate measures to allow Communists to get along with other nations, the argument stands or falls on both the historical record and on the nature of communism...
...Such a program would greatly increase the security of our strategic forces...
...Rather than a simple reformism, this critique calls for salvation t~rough the liberating experience of smashing everything...
...Erickson suggests in effect, that the model which best describes Soviet military behavior is that they do "'the best they can...
...With the exception of a few categories of military strength, there is an unambiguous Soviet quantitative advantage over the United States...
...Evil is seen as man's problem here and now to he faced rather than hidden by resort to the use of a future possible reality...
...The studies often produced ambiguous conclusions because the public data could be interpreted in several ways as late as 1969...
...It would genuinely add to the security of both countries...
...Deceitful Peace: A New Lookat the Soviet Threat by Gerhart Niemeyer Arlington House, $8.95 Between Nothingness and Paradise by Gerhart Niemeyer Louisiana State University Press, $8.95 The Cold War seems to have passed into the hands of the historian...
...It would diminish the pressure that we are now under to press ahead with new offensive nuclear systems of our own...
...American Enterprise Institute, $3.00 Soviet Military Power by John Eriekson Royal United Service Institute, $3.09 Since the unmistakable details of the broad-based Soviet military buildup since 1968 emerged, there has been an increasing number of books, monographs, and articles by~prolessional and academic defense specialists examining the character of Soviet efforts...
...I would hope, therefore, that such a proposal would be vigorously pressed at the SALT talks...
...Kintner and Pfaltzgraff make a useful contribution to the analysis of the Soviet military buildup by suggesting three alternative hypotheses of Soviet intent: strategies of "'opportunity," _9 'caution," and "condominium...
...About one percent of the goods and services we will produce this year is allocated to the procurement, maintenance and operation of our strategic deterrent...
...The teleological critique claims to reduce man to an objectively known product of the meaningless flux of things...
...In either case, the total critiques: "have assumed an Archimedian point beyond the realm of experience from which the world of experience can be surveye<i, criticized and even declared a nothingness...
...Military Trends:Implications for U.S...
...The 'strategy of caution" implies that the Soviets would attempt to replace U.S...
...The Soviets have tended to concentrate their efforts in a few wellknown areas to the U.S...
...Security by William R. Kintuer and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr...
...One final word: The United States is experiencing a wave of hostility to the military at the moment, a hostility that makes fair and objective discussion of defense issues a difficult thing to achieve...
...By preventing the deployment of ABM systems for the purpose of defending populated areas - - thick city defenses - - we would diminish the necessity for deploying MIRVs on our Minuteman force...
...In spite of the obvious importance of having such knowledge, we really know very little about Soviet strategic doctrine...
...The one critique (axiological) sees all of history as alien to the true order of reality and human nature...
...Such a critique goes a lot deeper than a mere complaint about particular wrongs in society...
...Salvation is God's work, not man's...
...Since that time, the conclusions of virtually every competent defense analyst has been that the Soviet obsession with defense is singular...
...Sin~e all value is seen to lie in the future, knowledge of that places one beyond the limits of present moral judgments or historical imitations...
...Augustine's view permits a choice outside of the phony dichotomy of a complete acceptance of the status quo or its total destruction...
...Their best effort in 1971 is considerably more formidable...
...By permitting us to deploy defenses to protect our Minuteman silos we would be able to counter any likely qualitative upgrading of the current Soviet offensive forces...
...What is now needed is a thorough analysis of Soviet bargaining strategy dealing with arms control negotiations so that we may be better prepared to understand the manner in which the Soviets are conducting themselves at the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks...
...and that the Soviet buildup has far exceeded the requirements of any plausible defense objective that had heretofore been attributed to the Soviets...
...William Schneider, Jr...
...And we could do this without in any way adding to our capacity to strike the Soviet deterrent...
...Society, in the Augustinian view, is not seen as the enemy, since it is but a product of the flawed constituent...
...The particular seductiveness of this critique is the pretension of positive knowledge of the future...
...To grasp the nature of communism, one of course usually begins with Marx...
...Moreover, it should calm any possible Soviet concern that we might be increasing the offensive potential of our forces so as to threaten the security of their deterrent...
...It seems to me that the risks involved in proposing such an interim agreement for an initial period of one year are minimal...
...The advantage of halting the deployment of Soviet offensive weapons would be real, immediate, and stabilizing...
...From the belief that we have been doing too little to solve our domestic problems - - a view that I share with many in this country - - it is all too easy to pass to a belief that what we spend on defense is wasted...
...When one digests the disparate information concerning the vast scope of the Soviet military buildup, it is clear that the whole of the separate .elements is greater than the sum of its parts...
...There are, of course, ongoing debates within the defense community as to where the net qualitative advantage for this or that weapon system lies...
...History once again is seen as alienation...
...The politician and political scientist are now concerned with detente, relaxation of tensions, disarmament, and in general, reordering ou~ national priorities from a foreign war that is over to a domestic war on social problems...
...What a far cry from Augustine's total critique of society which was based on the Biblical doctrine of the corruption of the human soul...
...The A l t e r n a t i v e November, 1971 21 recent developments in Soviet defense policy...
...might seek to employ stemming from its nuclear arsenal...
...While that latter study hypothesizes trends in and the implications of Soviet military buildup, Erickson examines the Soviet buildup to deduce the character of Soviet strategy with regard to the evidence we have about Soviet force deployments and strategic doctrine...
...I believe that this country is rich enough in moral and material resources to provide for the security of our people and resolve our domestic problems as well...
...In the past few years, the Soviet economy has become sufficiently large to support a defense establishment roughly equal in size to our own...
Vol. 5 • November 1971 • No. 2
