Politics: Calling the House
Norquist, Grover G.
POLITICS by Grover G. Norquist Calling the House T he November 3 elections are coming into sharper focus. While Republicans expect to pick up three or four governorships and two or three Senate...
...All summer and fall, many communities will be discussing the $wo million private scholarship grants to poor children made possible by donations from John Walton and Theodore Forstmann...
...Robert Aderholt of Alabama's fourth district had $510,377 cash on hand while his opponent had only $10,546, even though the Democrats had made this seat a major target...
...Vito Fossella in New York to replace Susan Molinari...
...In 1958, Republicans lost 48 seats under President Eisenhower...
...Individual races reflect this disparity...
...The six-year itch remains a mysterious but undeniable trend...
...Republicans also won four of five special House elections: Bill Redmond in New Mexico's third district...
...Fifty-eight percent of self-described "very conservative" voters say their interest in voting this fall is high...
...On the other hand, Republican governors in Texas, Pennsylvania, New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, Connecticut, and Arkansas are running strong, Why the Republicans will win very big this fall...
...Only 42 percent of liberals plan to vote...
...So, too, the 1997 and 1998 special elections bode well for the GOP...
...The GOP enjoys a huge fundraising advantage in governor's races: By July, Connecticut's John Rowland had $1.2 million to Barbara Kennelly's $628,000...
...Democrats have been spending money faster than Republicans because, lacking strong incumbents and local party structures, they are forced to run their campaigns all the way from Washington...
...This time Republicans will only have to defend 36 freshmen, not 72...
...each withstood the millions in ads by labor unions, the illegal Clinton campaign cash tsunami, and a voter turnout run by the Clintonistas...
...Bill Redmond of New Mexico had $246,679 compared with famous son Tom Udall's $33,351...
...Conventional wisdom notwithstanding, the 1996 elections also augur a strong 1998 for Republicans...
...In 1974, with help from the recession and Richard Nixon's resignation, Democrats picked up 74 seats...
...Since Clinton won in 1992, Republicans have gained a net 5o seats in the House and 11 in the Senate, and 4 governorships...
...and won the mayors' races in New York, Los Angeles, St...
...The results of recent elections reveal a Republican trend...
...Money is another cause for Republican optimism...
...An RNC poll in July found that conservatives and Clinton critics say they are more likely to vote than liberals and those who approve of Clinton...
...and Sonny Bono's widow, Mary, in California...
...In the 17th district in Illinois, Republican challenger Mark Baker had $449,283 to incumbent Lane Evans's $321,174...
...been parried...
...Only once this century (in 1934) has the party in the White House gained House seats in an off-year election...
...If he retakes the House for liberalism, his place in history will be on a par with that of FDR or JFK...
...R epublicans should also be encouraged by how the issues have played out this summer...
...With Reagan in the GROVER G. NORQUIST is president of Americans for Tax Reform...
...And none of these was elected in an "easy" year...
...While Republicans expect to pick up three or four governorships and two or three Senate seats, all eyes are on the 435 campaigns that will determine which party controls the House of Representatives come January 1999...
...The Democrats' hopes of winning a net eleven seats — necessary for taking control of the House—are fading...
...The American Spectator • September 1998 65...
...Clinton's fundraising juggernaut has been slowed down by scandal, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has only $4 million in cash on hand, compared to $10 million for its counterpart, the National Republican Campaign Committee (NRCC...
...Texas's George W. Bush had $4.5 million to his opponent's $221,0oo...
...Fully 138 Democrats who had been mentioned in the press as possible candidates subsequently declined to run...
...The 1993 off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia, along with several special House elections, presaged the 1994 Republican victories...
...In 1996, Bill Clinton was at the top of the ticket in those states, running against a weak Bob Dole...
...But if he is the president who permanently loses the House for his party, the liberals will never forgive him...
...Despite a net loss of nine House seats that year, the GOP elected three challengers, won ten open Democratic seats, and held 19 Republican open seats, while losing four open seats and 18 incumbent seats to Democrats...
...Only 32 Democrats will run unopposed...
...In 1938, Republicans gained 81 seats running against Franklin Roosevelt...
...In 1966, the GOP picked up 47 house seats running against LBJ's Great Society...
...New York's George Pataki had banked $10 million to his opponents' $2 million...
...Moreover, 1998 is not just an off-year election, but the sixth year under a two-term president...
...If there is one strong argument that Republicans will fail to strengthen their grip on the House of Representatives, it is that Clinton will do everything he can to prevent it...
...White House in 1986, Republicans lost only 5 seats—the best record for any president's party since WWII...
...64 September 199 8 • The American Spectator well-funded campaigns that will help congressional candidates with turnout, fundraising, and coattails...
...According to specialists, 6o Democratic seats are up for grabs, but only 38 Republican...
...Fifty-five percent of Clinton critics say they're likely to vote...
...The Democrats' "silver bullets" of campaign finance reform, tobacco legislation, HMO reform, and education have fizzled or44 The Democrats' hopes of winning a net eleven seats—necessary for taking control of the House—are fading...
...A National Journal poll of congressional staffers found staffers of both parties expecting Republicans to retain a majority there...
...swept the governorship and all other statewide offices in Virginia, winning the state senate and tying in the state house...
...History also suggests that the GOP will keep, and even increase, its House majority...
...Nineteen state legislative chambers have come under GOP control, and more than 37o elected Democrat officeholders have become Republicans...
...The Democrats' traditional position of spending more on education may cost them both state houses in Vermont and blunt their drive in New Hampshire...
...Spencer Bachus specifically mentioned Clinton's problem as his reason for dropping out...
...In Alabama, a Democrat expected to oppose Rep...
...Heather Wilson in New Mexico's first...
...Yet history is one of the weaker reasons for Republican optimism...
...Paul, and Jersey City...
...A National Monitor poll conducted June 24-28 found likely voters planning to vote 43 to 37 percent Republican over Democrat for the House...
...In November of 1997, Republicansre-elected Christie Whitman as governor of New Jersey, and held onto both the assembly and senate in that state...
...The one Republican who endangered himself—Jay Kim, who broke campaign finance laws—was defeated in his primary...
...By the end of last year, GOP gubernatorial candidate George Ryan in Illinois had $4 million in the bank against Glenn Poshard's $3o0,000...
...By June of this year, Florida's Jeb Bush had $5.6 million to Buddy MacKay's $1.9 million...
...Polls by all three networks found little enthusiasm for the bill, and voters say they will vote on other issues...
...In mid-July, Rep...
...Similar elections in the past have handed substantial gains to the party out of the White House...
...These Republican governors and gubernatorial candidates want to attract attention for the moo presidential and vice-presidential sweepstakes by rolling up the largest possible margins and having the longest coattails, capturing state legislative bodies that include the Texas house, the Michigan house, and the Illinois senate...
...Perhaps most important, 44 percent of "weak" Republicans plan to vote, versus only 36 percent of "weak" Democrats...
...The stakes are high for both teams...
...In 1998, there are 16 Democratic open seats and 17 Republican open seats to defend...
...The Republicans have passed school vouchers for poor children in Washington, D.C., but Clinton has vetoed them at the behest of the teachers' unions...
...More significant is that 1998 was a poor recruitment year for Democratic candidates—thanks in part to Monica Lewinsky...
...Walter Capps's widow, Lois, in California...
...Every other such election has found the opposition party gaining in the House...
...By the time the Senate voted down the McCain tobacco tax, voters had come to see it as a boon for greedy trial lawyers...
...Only 40 percent of Clinton backers are excited about voting this fall...
...He knows that if he recaptures the House, he can stop the congressional investigations into his scandals...
...Republican Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has long pointed out that no one ever lost an election on the desiccated issue of campaign finance reform...
...On the other hand, the Republican leadership in Congress has put out enough red meat to rouse the appetites of its most finicky base voters: partial-birth abortion, parental notification, school prayer, school choice, capital gains cuts, ending the death tax, property rights, ending the five-day waiting period in the Brady Bill, and tort reform...
...It is working...
...It simply doesn't show up as a voter concern...
...The one exception was Tom Bordonaro's loss to Rep...
...At least 51 Republicans will find themselves with no Democratic opponent on the November ballot...
...Not this year...
...In that case it is they—not the Republicans—who will tear him to shreds before 2000...
...On January 21, just when serious politicians were committing themselves to running for the November election, a seemingly devastating scandal descended on the White House...
...While it is true that 1938, 1958, and 1974 were all bad economic years, 1986 and 1966 were times of prosperity...
...Education shows up high in voter concerns, yet on July 22 Clinton vetoed the Coverdell-Gingrich education savings accounts, which would allow millions of Americans to save for their children's education tax-free...
Vol. 31 • September 1998 • No. 9
