Conservative Critics of NATO

...The U.S...

...Kissinger seems to start with a position not far removed from Kristol's (the need for a substantial Europeanization of NATO), but that position is soon overwhelmed by qualifications...

...The United States has interests in the Pacific which are extremely important in their own right and which should not simply be subordinated to other considerations...

...12 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JUNE 1984 second, they would very likely result in an American retreat to isolationism...

...And third, as far as the heavy expense of conventional defense is concerned, Kristol maintains that as the alliance clearly has the means available to meet this expense if it chooses to do so, and as dependence on nuclear weapons no longer makes sense, it would be clear evidence of political decadence if the challenge were not met...

...It is only in the event of the decision going the other way, with Europe deciding to condemn the alliance to permanent conventional inferiority, that the U.S...

...To the first, which amounts to the familiar argument that while the operation might well succeed the patient would probably die, he responds, in effect, that as things are the patient is dying anyway, so there is nothing to lose by taking the risk...

...publicly recognizes anything as serious as a crisis...

...As the military balance between the United States and the Soviet Union has shifted in favor of the latter, NATO no longer has a credible strategic doctrine...

...If they were to desire it, and if agreement could be reached on terms, the U.S...

...Some argue that a Ronald Reagan fresh from an election mandate will be bolder on policy fronts...

...So, too, do their views on strategic issues outside the NATO area...

...It must either be bound to Europe and committed to a foreign policy with a high ideological content, or it will lapse into isolationism...

...After calling for a new group of "men and women known for their dedication to Western unity" to draw up a comprehensive design for NATO--an updated and unsexist version of the familiar "wise men" solution to alliance problems-he immediately proceeds to throw in his hand before a negotiating bid is made, by conceding that it is "extremely improbable" that they would agree to his proposals...

...The second view is that the current crisis is not only real but of a different order of gravity from earlier periods of tension...

...But this did not happen with Richard Nixon or Dwight Eisenhower, the last two GOP candidates to win in a landslide...

...The conclusion of this group is that we should be more relaxed about NATO, that it is basically in good shape, and that a little good will and good sense can sort out whatproblems exist...

...Kissinger tried to do the same a few years ago at Brussels, but the furor his talk created reminded him that, even if he was not currently employed by the American government, he was still in office--the office of being Henry Kissinger...

...The status of the proposal to withdraw significant numbers of American ground troops from Europe is thus changed...

...Kristol has his answers to each of these objections...

...Second, where Podhoretz stresses the danger of isolationism, Kristol sees the opportunity for America, no longer impeded by the debilitating entanglements of an enfeebled NATO, to engage in a purposeful unilateral globalism...

...published earlier this year by Devin-Adair, Greenwich, Connecticut...

...foreign policy...

...Until this balance of concerns is changed, until circumstances are created that alter the terms by which the Europeans are obliged to calculate and compel them to give greater weight to American views, no amount of preaching, blandishments, or tinkering is likely to be effective in changing European behavior...

...Reagan's campaign themes will of course be more conservative than Ike's or Nixon's, yet since becoming President, he has essentially based his decisions on "political reality"--reality defined less by John Lofton than by the Washington Post...

...By this time the sound of the deck chairs being rearranged is already distinctly audible...

...One does not want to be misunderstood: There is, of course, a sense in which "the West" does exist, but it does so as an entity characterized by certain shared values and traditions...

...I am poignantly aware of how wan, how lacking in vitality, the case has become...

...That is, Kristol maintains that the very argument Podhoretz advances against an American withdrawal from Europe is, if accepted, in fact a compelling one in its favor...

...At the conference sufficient concern was expressed by the European participants for Jeane Kirkpatrick to reassure them that Europe was not about to be displaced by the Pacific as the area of major U.S...

...The most obvious candidates are the countries of the Pacific, many of whom have exhibited impressive dynamism in recent years and among whom there is stirring a vague but persistent interest in the concept of a "Pacific Community...

...Throughout, he seems torn between the wish to change an unsatisfactory framework and concern to work within that framework, between asserting boldly what must be done to restore NATO and timidly limiting himself to what will be acceptable to the Europeans...

...Commitment to the alliance and a clear sense of its fundamental purpose have declined seriously and are continuing to do so...

...Nor will the presidential election necessarily tell us much about the future policy direction of the country...

...Reagan win because he was "pragmatic" after the shooting down of the Korean jet liner, or because he was "right wing" over Grenada...

...He seems to have taken the experience to heart...

...An apposite example of this tactic is George Canning's famous "calling in the New World to redress the balance of the Old" in the 1820s, at a time when Britain was at odds with the other members of the Quadruple Alliance...

...Interestingly, there is some evidence that such thinking may now have begun...

...The only certainty is that the Hive will play the results as an affirmation that the public is much farther to the left--or rather, much "closer to the center"--than Mr...

...land-based air power on the continent, continue its responsibility for both strategic and tactical nuclear defense, keep its intermediate-range missiles in Europe (subject to the wishes of the Europeans), and maintain its naval deployment unchanged...

...And as this is being written a specially appointed ambassador is about to take off through Asia on the first of several trips to explore the Pacific Community concept more actively and at a higher level than previously...

...And yet, surely, unless one has completely given up on NATO, that is the crux of the problem...

...Given the caliber and sophistication of Kissinger, Kristol, and Podhoretz, one of the most surprising features of their writings on the subject of NATO is the failure to consider seriously the politics of the alliance...

...These range from taking a more active, positive attitude toward the idea of a "Pacific Community," through stimulating the creation of social and economic institutions in the region (perhaps along OECD lines), to the setting up of mechanisms for political and strategic consultations on global issues with those countries in the regions that would be interested itt participating...

...In other words, all three of the relationships which are fundamental to the alliance--those between the U.S...

...This use of what Liddel Hart used to call "the strategy of indirect approach" may point to a more effective way of reinvigorating NATO than concentrating directly on the mired issues of organization, force structures, and political attitudes in Europe...

...There are various steps open to the United States in the Pacific which would serve to remind Europeans that, if worst came to worst in NATO, the United States is not without options...

...In a sense Podhoretz's very deep pessimism, both about the strength of American isolationism and the risk involved in putting Europe to the test of responding positively to a severe shock, forces him to reach a conclusion more characteristic of the congenital optimist: i.e., that exhortation alone may keep NATO in business...

...First, the U.S...

...argues that there has been no change in Mr...

...Signals such as these already seem to be registering in Europe...

...He does not believe that it is capable of sustaining a Realpolitik based on nothing more than national interest...

...In any event his recent piece on NATO in Time magazine is uncharacteristically tentative and muddled, with so much giving and taking away that it is difficult to know for certain what he is recommending...

...But what else can one do...

...One can understand the reasoning: Recognizing a crisis would involve, at a minimum, resolving to do something about it, and, at worst, could contribute to a further deterioration by undermining the established habits of thought and behavior which are by now the alliance's principal asset...

...Europe should assume major responsibility for conventional ground defense and for arms control negotiations covering weapons on European soil--but the United States tie his own proposal...

...This emphasis is probably misplaced, in several ways...

...Formerly he was Australia's Ambassador to UNESCO (1982-83) and a senior adviser to Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser...

...His answer to the current predicament is to urge the "silent majority" of Europe to find its voice and to warn that if it does not America will have no choice but to walk the isolationist path...

...But one possibility immediately comes to mind, and that is the classic move of introducing new actors into the game to alter the existing balance of forces...

...Kristol, on the other hand, seems reasonably confident that America could pursue a policy based on national interest effectively...

...There is increasing opposition within the alliance, and particularly in its European component, both to dependence on nuclear weapons and to significant increases in conventional military strength...

...The President will inevitably play to as many constituencies as he might plausibly attract, muddying the question of what his victory means...

...It might be thought that a "solution" which requires the achieving of these three objectives is no solution at all, but merely a restatement of the problem...

...What we are really talking about is a principle typically used in economics, 14 THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JUNE 1984...

...Between now and November, most of the media, much of the money, and a good share of the time of political volunteers will focus on the race for the Oval Ofrice...

...But, unlike the optimists, he gives the answer in anguish, without conviction and because, given the logic of his position, there is no other available...

...Scattered attention will no doubt be given to a few governor's races, or Gregory A. Fossedal is an editorial writer for the Wall Street Journal and co-author (with Daniel O. Graham) of A Defense that Defends...

...Further, if Europe is indeed decadent, there can be no political or moral case for committing American ground troops to its defense...

...either that or he is now in a state of serious uncertainty and confusion about NATO...

...Kissinger ends his article by setting out three crucial political objectives for the alliance...

...The future of the alliance is now in jeopardy and the whole enterprise is likely to unravel unless farreaching and urgent measures are taken to deal with the crisis...

...It is well within the means of the Europeans to make it unnecessary by providing themselves with adequate conventional defense forces...

...It can wait until "the wise and thoughtful Carrington" is prepared to leave, which, given that he has just taken the job, is likely to be a fair while...

...and third, the cost of an adequate conventional defense is politically and economically prohibitive and it is unrealistic to expect that the Europeans could or would bear it...

...The proponents of this view, a mixed bag which includes, among others, Lord Carrington (the new Secretary General of NATO), Willy Brandt, Couve de Murville, and, to descend a little, Hodding Carter, maintain that what we are experiencing is merely the latest instance of the somewhat heightened level of friction that inevitably occurs from time to time in a large alliance...

...Any of these steps, perhaps combined with a deliberate and measured "benign neglect" of purely European preoccupations for a while, would be likely to focus the minds of Europeans wonderfully...

...Second, the propagation of the view that NATO was not simply an ordinary alliance between nation states but represented a supranational and spiritual entity known as "the West" made it seem indecent to think in selfinterested political terms...

...This view has been put forcefully by a number of American conservatives, including Henry Kissinger, Irving Kristol, and Norman Podhoretz...

...Nor did it happen in Mr...

...The real choice, Kissinger decides, would be between just muddling along with mere token changes and a commitment to full conventional defense on NATO's part...

...As a reading of popular sentiment, Mr...

...Did he win for supporting the Kemp tax cuts, or because he watered them down twice in 1981 and then passed four tax hikes...

...and European governments must meet "head-on" the pacifistic and neutralist trends in their countries...

...Reagan's second term as California governor...

...William F. Buckley, Jr...

...Instead of a unilateral and unconditional decision on the part of the United States, required by American interests and aimed at forcing the Europeans to accept responsibilities (which is how Kristol sees it), it is reduced to a threatened "punishment" after the event, if they do not shape up...

...Buckley is right...

...It is in this sense that they most need to be made to assume "responsibility...

...Part of the impulse behind this interest is the concern of some (not all) countries in the region to play a wider and more assertive role in international affairs, to make Pacific voices heard more clearly both in the region and beyond it...

...And it is probably true that Kissinger's status makes these ruminations, whatever their intellectual shortcomings, the most potent warning yet delivered to the Europeans about the way American opinion is moving...

...If it should come to that, the withdrawal should be gradual...

...Two things have worked against serious American consideration of the politics of alliance in this sense...

...foreign policy concern: a reassurance that might itself have caused thoughtful Europeans to ponder...

...While being as unhappy as Kristol about the state of NATO, and perhaps even more hostile to prevailing European attitudes, Podhoretz rejects these proposals on three grounds: First, their implementation would in all probability lead to the collapse of Europe's will and to its subsequent Finlandization...

...A direct confrontation with a hard choice just might bring Europe to its senses...

...Did Mr...

...should be prepared to form a separate alliance v, ith this new European NATO...

...Kristol evidently appreciates this, but believes that things cannot be altered without destroying NATO as it is now constituted--a form of political action, it is true, but one that should be considered as a last resort, after all others have been tried and have failed...

...Conversely, while Kristol's conclusions are much more startling and bleak--withdraw from NATO, give up its basic strategic doctrine, pull out American ground troops--they are should maintain "considerable" ground forces in Europe, preserve and preferably strengthen existing U.S...

...Kissinger, Kristol, and Podhoretz essentially agree about the nature of the problem...

...Regarding the United States, Podhoretz is the more pessimistic...

...Anti-Americanism, neutralism, and pacifism are rampant in Europe and are spreading out beyond radical and student circles to infect the attitudes of governments, potential governments, and the people at large...

...aggregate changes in the Congress, e.g., whether the Republicans will gain or lose five seats in the House...

...It is no doubt easier to draw attention to the importance of intra-alliance politics in a general way than it is to propose particular strategies which might effect the kinds of changes required in this instance...

...As between the two assessments there is really no contest...

...But then, it would be naive to expect the Reagan White House to change merely as a result of (yet another) mandate...

...He says nothing about how these objectives, which after all have long been recognized as crucial, are in fact to be achieved...

...American leadership has been poor in recent years and is increasingly resented and mistrusted...

...But things soon get worse, as Kissinger proceeds to scutultimately based on a more confident (though not a very confident) view of Europe (and America) than that held by Podhoretz...

...The Europeans would then be in complete charge of the defense of Europe, free to adopt whatever military and political strategy they chose for that purpose...

...now America is in the British position of requiring new actors...

...What the Europeans need to be given are not more reassurances but THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR JUNE 1984 13 conditions which require them to remember the fundamental terms of the alliance...

...It is the acceptance and rejection of this possibility, rather than a difference about the power of exhortation, that finally separate the two...

...In that instance the United States was the new actor introduced...

...No urgency about this, however...

...The first is so at variance with the facts, so determined not to acknowledge obvious basic changes affecting the very foundations of the alliance, that one must assume it is usually advanced for political reasons...

...bipartisanship must be restored to U.S...

...There is also agreement among Kissinger, Kristol, and Podhoretz that, as those without responsibility must be expected to behave irresponsibly, it is vital that Europe be made to assume greater control of its own defense...

...If Europe were prepared to opt for the latter course-and no reason is given as to why it would be willing to do so, having resisted the idea up to now--the U.S...

...Even so, it is so heavily qualified and incremental in character as to be upsetting rather than compelling...

...No doubt Kissinger would defend himself by saying that these kinds of ambiguities and balancing acts are unavoidable in serious international politics...

...The United States should give up the supreme military command of NATO--but it should keep the deputy position and moreover should take over that of Secretary General, responsible for the alliance's political machinery...

...It must equip itself with a grand strategy for both East-West and Third World problems...

...In the end we are left with little more than a proposal to set up a group of "wise persons," a halfhearted warning to the possibility of troop withdrawal, and some high-class preaching...

...should "accept the judgment that its present ground forces in Europe are an indispensible component" of such a defense...

...For its part, America should accept a doctrine of "no first use" of nuclear weapons, as dependence on those weapons as a first resort no longer makes strategic sense and it (rightly) scares the wits out of the Europeans...

...and the Soviet Union, between the U.S...

...A recent speech on the transatlantic relationship by Lawrence Eagleburger, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, began with a discussion not of the Atlantic and Europe but of the Pacific and Asia-innocently introduced in terms of demographic changes in the United States...

...But by and large, all eyes will be hypnotized by the supreme event, and that, it is assumed, is the White House sweepstakes...

...Podhoretz and Kristol both write as engaged but independent intellectuals who clearly say what they mean...

...should begin the withdrawal of a substantial part ("perhaps up to half") of its present ground forces...

...In April, a large and well-publicized conference was held in Paris with the interesting title, "The Challenge of the Pacific: Western Hopes and Fears...

...It does not exist as a polity...

...This assumption is supported by the fact that no one holding office in any NATO country Owen Harries is the John M. Olin Fellow at The Heritage Foundation...

...European political, trade, and financial links with the Soviet Union have grown substantially in the last decade...

...Reagan...

...As of now, and in fact for a number of years, the Europeans have come to take the American commitment so much for granted that they are more responsive to domestic political pressures and Soviet reactions to their behavior than they are to the views of the United States...

...All in all, this is not one of Kissinger's more impressive efforts...

...Kristol, taking the most radical position, opts for the conversion of NATO into an all-European affair...

...was so dominant for so long, and could get its way so easily, that it was unnecessary to think about it...

...As regards the European pulse, the situation is more complicated...

...and its European allies, and between the Europeans and the Soviet Union--have changed profoundly in recent years, and changed in ways which undermine the integrity of NATO...

...The United States should leave the alliance and withdraw all its ground troops from Europe...

...also should be prepared to provide the Europeans with tactics/l, intermediate-range, and long-range nuclear weapons, but only on request...

...But beyond that~and specifically on how that objective is to be achieved--their views diverge...

...In Hodding Carter's words, the concern and recrimination expressed on both sides of the Atlantic are simply "a repeat of a play witnessed many times before...

...On the other hand, little can be done to resolve the crisis until it is recognized, and recognized publicly...

...The crucial difference between Kristol and Podhoretz turns on their reading of the respective pulses of America and Europe (they are of course virtually in full agreement about the principal adversary, the Soviet Union...

...Indeed, in reality it might not really occur at all, for the "excess" forces might remain in Europe for an unspecified time "in a new status analogous to that of the French forces...

...J e r r y P. James, an Oklahoma political activist, probably speaks for many Americans when he writes: "The single most important political event in 1984 is the reelection of our great President, Ronald Reagan...

...But this does not mean that they should not be thought of in relation to other things, and indeed such linkages are required of a global power worthy of the name...

...Reagan's margin of victory--assuming victory-may tell us far less than is widely believed...

...Reagan, that he "prefers to point the way" but wear the white hat, that he is a rhetorical right-winger but an operational centrist...

...American and European assessments of Soviet aims and behavior diverge increasingly...